The Empty Net Effect on Plus/Minus

The disparity in team talent is written all over the record books. Wayne Gretzky redefined the "50 goals in 50 games" milestone, the ultimate benchmark of a generational elite. By the NHL's official definition, this feat is achieved only when a player scores 50 goals within the team's first 50 games of the season.

Originally established by Maurice "Rocket" Richard in 1944-45, the official club includes only five names: Richard, Mike Bossy, Wayne Gretzky (3 times), Mario Lemieux, and Brett Hull (2 times). However, if the NHL recognized 50 goals in a player's first 50 games, the list would look much different. Mario Lemieux would tie Gretzky with three such seasons, adding his 1992-93 and 1995-96 campaigns to the record. It is a frustrating technicality that denies Mario equal footing with Wayne in this category. It also unfairly shuts the door on legendary performances by Jari Kurri, Cam Neely, and Alexander Mogilny. All of them reached 50 in 50 personal games and deserve "50-in-50" recognition.

When Wayne Gretzky scored 50 goals in just 39 games, shattering the previous record by 11 games, who was the goaltender he beat for that historic 50th goal? The answer might surprise you: it was "Air." It was an empty-netter.

As incredible as Gretzky’s feats were, he played for a juggernaut loaded with Hall of Fame talent. In the high-scoring 1980s, the frequent strategy of pulling the goalie for an extra attacker provided a golden opportunity to pad point totals with empty net goals and a boosted plus-minus for elite teams. On February 10, 2024, Alex Ovechkin scored his 57th career empty-net goal, finally surpassing Gretzky for the all-time lead. A study of the 2015–16 NHL season illustrates the lopsided math of these situations: while an attacking team is three times more likely to score with six skaters, the defending team is seven times more likely to score an empty-net goal.

While Gretzky’s brilliance is undeniable, he anchored an Edmonton dynasty that lived on the right side of the "Extra Attacker" math. This statistical environment benefited Gretzky on his elite squads. It was a massive detriment to Lemieux, who spent the bookends of his career on struggling teams. Rather than "cleaning up" with easy empty-net points, Mario often found himself on the receiving end while playing for a Pittsburgh Penguins organization that went bankrupt twice. Despite the lack of opportunities, Mario was incredibly efficient. If Mario had spent his career protecting leads on a 50-win team rather than chasing them on a 20-win team, the all-time goal-scoring leaderboard might look different than today.

Frozen Greatness: The Power of a Lemieux-Gretzky Duo

As we compare these two legends, one has to wonder: what if Gretzky and Lemieux had played together in their primes? Fortunately, the 1987 Canada Cup provides the answer. In the summer of 1987, Canada, Czechoslovakia, Finland, the Soviet Union, Sweden, and the United States met for a "best-on-best" tournament that remains the gold standard of international hockey. Every roster was a showcase of NHL stardom. Czechoslovakia featured a young Dominik Hašek in goal. Finland was led by Jari Kurri, Teppo Numminen, and Esa Tikkanen, while Mats Näslund and Kent Nilsson wore the "Tre Kronor" for Sweden. The United States brought a powerhouse lineup including Joe Mullen, Pat LaFontaine, Kevin Hatcher, Phil Housley, Gary Suter, Chris Chelios, and the goaltending duo of Tom Barrasso and John Vanbiesbrouck.

However, the true heavyweights were the USSR and Canada. Set against the backdrop of the Cold War, the Soviets deployed their legendary "KLM Line" of Vladimir Krutov, Igor Larionov, and Sergei Makarov, supported by defensive stalwarts Vyacheslav Fetisov and Alexei Kasatonov. Their roster was so deep that nearly a dozen players, including Valeri Kamensky, Igor Kravchuk and Sergei Nemchinov, and at least 4 more future NHL professionals once the Iron Curtain fell. At the time, the Soviet Union boasted a population of 280 million, dwarfing Canada’s 26 million, but Canada countered with pure hockey pedigree. Their lineup was an incredible Dream Team collection of Hall of Fame icons: Mark Messier, Dale Hawerchuk, Paul Coffey, Ray Bourque, Larry Murphy, Mike Gartner, Glenn Anderson, Michel Goulet, Brent Sutter, Rick Tocchet, Doug Gilmour, Claude Lemieux, Grant Fuhr, and, of course, the crown jewel pairing of Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux. The tournament culminated in a legendary three-game final series between these two giants, where the world finally saw what happened when 99 and 66 shared the same sheet of ice.

The 1987 Canada Cup served as the ultimate proof of Gretzky and Lemieux's combined dominance. At just 26 years old, Wayne Gretzky was at the absolute peak of his powers. Team Canada coach Mike Keenan leaned on him relentlessly, often double-shifting Gretzky against the world’s best defenders. The strategy paid off: Gretzky led the entire tournament with a staggering 21 points in just nine games.

However, Mario Lemieux proved he was the greatest natural goal-scorer in the world. He finished second in total scoring (18 points) but dominated the goal-scoring leaderboard. While Gretzky was the primary playmaker, Lemieux was the tournament's premier finisher. His 11 goals were four more than any other player in the tournament, a massive margin considering the elite level of competition. Together, they accounted for nearly half of Canada's offensive production in the most difficult tournament ever played. In a tournament featuring the greatest players on the planet, the gap between the Gretzky-Lemieux duo and everyone else was, quite simply, legendary.

The 1987 Canada Cup served as the ultimate proof that a 21-year-old Mario Lemieux didn't just belong among the elite; he could dominate them. For many, it was the first time seeing what Penguins fans already knew: Mario was a statistical and physical anomaly. At 6'4", Lemieux held a significant physical advantage, standing four inches taller and nearly 50 pounds heavier than Wayne Gretzky. Often, players of that size were relegated to "power forward" roles, but Lemieux shattered that mold. He showcased a level of finesse, puck-handling, and playmaking ability that matched Gretzky’s, but housed within a frame that was virtually impossible to knock off the puck.

In a fantastic retrospective for its 30th anniversary, Sportsnet Canada revisited the 1987 Canada Cup, a series that defined a generation. After dropping the opener to the Soviets in overtime, Team Canada rallied to even the series in Game 2 on a legendary double-overtime winner from Mario Lemieux. The drama culminated in the third and final game, where Mario Lemieux cemented his legacy by scoring one of the most iconic goals in Canadian hockey history. With only 1 minute and 26 seconds remaining in regulation, Lemieux fired a perfect shot to seal the championship. Reflecting on Mario's dominance, Soviet star Valeri Kamensky noted, "the perfect shot. (Mario) scores like this probably 100 times. He’s the greatest player in the world, I think." Even Wayne Gretzky, humbled by the parity and skill on display, admitted afterward, "I don’t know if the best team won the tournament," acknowledging the razor-thin margin between these two global powerhouses.

Trades, Transitions, and the Pursuit of 200 Points

The 1987 Canada Cup wasn't just a tournament for Mario; it was an education. Beyond the on-ice chemistry, Wayne Gretzky recognized Lemieux’s immense potential and urged him to quit his pack-a-day smoking habit. Mario listened and became more disciplined in his craft, which, combined with the arrival of Paul Coffey, transformed the Penguins for the 1987–88 season.

The Edmonton Oilers ownership, unwilling to pay Coffey market value following their 1987 Stanley Cup victory, traded the superstar defenseman to Pittsburgh in exchange for Craig Simpson, Moe Mantha, and Chris Joseph. For the first time in his career, Lemieux had a teammate who operated on his elite level, support he had lacked since entering the league. This trade was merely the first domino to fall in Edmonton’s eventual dismantling of their dynasty, which would later see Gretzky, Jari Kurri, Mark Messier, Grant Fuhr, and Glenn Anderson all shipped out of town after a total of 5 Stanley Cup Championships.

While Coffey brought championship pedigree to Pittsburgh, the team still lacked coaching expertise. In a must-win penultimate game against Washington, the players actually had to instruct head coach Pierre Creamer to pull the goalie, as a tie would have eliminated them from playoff contention. During the overtime period, the scoreboard updated to show that the New Jersey Devils had won their game against the Islanders. This meant a tie was no longer enough; the Penguins had to win to stay alive. Seeing the clock wind down in a 6-6 tie, several players on the bench began shouting at Creamer to pull goaltender Steve Guenette. With just 58 seconds remaining in overtime, Mario Lemieux produced one of the most magical goals he ever scored. Mario received a pass from Doug Bodger and beat defenseman Larry Murphy wide. Despite being tripped and falling to his knees, he managed to flip the puck past Capitals goalie Clint Malarchuk, his 69th goal of the season and the game-winner in overtime.

Mario finished with 70 goals and his 168th point in the season finale win vs. Hartford, clinching his first Art Ross Trophy scoring title by 19 points over an injury-hampered Gretzky. Despite winning the Hart Trophy as league MVP, Mario’s brilliance wasn't enough to overcome the team's shortcomings. The Penguins were denied a postseason berth in a year where 16 of the league’s 21 teams made the playoffs.

The 1988–89 season stands as one of the most remarkable chapters of Mario Lemieux’s career, highlighted by his personal best and official league-leading total of 199 points. Wayne Gretzky remains the sole player in NHL history to cross the mythical 200-point threshold, a feat he accomplished four times. Yet, Mario Lemieux’s 199-point masterpiece rarely gets the reverence it deserves alongside Gretzky’s milestone. What makes Lemieux’s run even more staggering is that he nearly broke the 200-point barrier flanked by Rob Brown and either Bob Errey or Randy Cunneyworth on his wings. They were a capable supporting cast, certainly, but far from hall-of-famers in their own right.

Lemieux's pursuit of 200 points was also robbed by a missed call late in the year. On April 1st against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden, Rob Brown beat goalie John Vanbiesbrouck. Vanbiesbrouck caught the puck in the air but behind the goal line as his glove with the puck were completely into the net. The officials and goal judge missed the split second decision, leaving the goal off the board. Brown finished the season with 49 goals, and Lemieux ended one point shy of 200.

Overall, the Penguins enjoyed a strong regular season as the organization actively built depth around Lemieux. Early in the year, Pittsburgh swapped blue-liner Doug Bodger to land goaltender Tom Barrasso, a Calder and Vezina winner who provided stable backstopping. The roster was also beginning to showcase young talent, including rookie Mark Recchi (15 games) and second-year power forward Kevin Stevens (24 games), signaling that Lemieux no longer had to carry the franchise entirely by himself.

Overcoming Adversity: Injuries, Surgeries, and the Battle with Cancer

Wayne Gretzky’s 2,857 career NHL points remain one of the most unbreakable records in sports, a total that might have been even higher without a few key injuries. While largely fortunate with his health, Gretzky was hampered by a knee injury in 1987–88 and suffered a major setback in the 1992–93 season. What began as excruciating rib pain was later diagnosed as a herniated thoracic disk in his spine, causing "The Great One" to miss a substantial part of the year.

During the 1989–90 NHL season, Mario Lemieux played through excruciating back pain that would have sidelined almost any other athlete. Despite the agony, he managed to score in 46 consecutive games, a feat second only to Wayne Gretzky’s 51-game record. The reality behind "The Streak" was grim: Lemieux was in such pain that he couldn't bend over to tie his own skates, requiring assistance just to get dressed. On the ice, he had to use his arms to manually hoist his legs over the boards during line changes.

Compounding the injury was the physical abuse he took from opponents. Knowing his back was a weakness, defenders targeted him with a relentless barrage of cross-checks. As teammate Bob Errey recalled:

“Gretzky was protected in a way that Mario was not. The Oilers had so much talent that they could afford to have a few tough guys around to scare people off... We weren’t there at that point. People always went after Mario. Maybe it was because he was big, but he took a beating every night. He shouldn’t have been playing during that streak; he was doing a disservice to his body. But he had so much pride. He wanted that record. Thinking back on it, how the hell did he do that? How did he put up a point in 46 straight games when he couldn’t even skate? He never practiced. He was always in pain. It blows you away.”

Ultimately, the source of the agony was a herniated disc, which finally forced Lemieux to undergo major back surgery in 1990.

Heading into the final day of the 1989–90 season, the Penguins’ playoff math was simple: they only needed a tie to secure a postseason berth. Mario Lemieux, who had been sidelined since his historic scoring streak ended on February 14th, returned for the finale in a desperate bid to will his team into the playoffs. Though he managed an early assist, the debilitating back pain clearly hampered his play; he was not his usual magical self. His limited mobility was evident throughout the night.

The heartbreak came off the stick of Buffalo Sabres defenseman Uwe Krupp. His overtime shot from the right point resulted in what could be the second-most famous goal of his career, handing the Penguins a loss and denying them a playoff spot. While devastating at the time, the defeat proved to be a fortuitous turning point for the franchise. By missing the playoffs, the Penguins secured the 5th overall pick in the 1990 NHL Entry Draft, allowing them to select the legendary Jaromir Jagr. Jagr as a rookie was an integral piece of their upcoming back-to-back Stanley Cup championships.

Mario Lemieux’s 1992–93 season could be regarded as the most dominant, courage-testing, and jaw-dropping individual campaign in North American professional sports history.

The 1992–93 National Hockey League season began as a masterpiece of pure athletic dominance, but it quickly transformed into one of the most remarkable human stories in the history of professional sports. Fresh off leading the Pittsburgh Penguins to back-to-back Stanley Cup championships, Mario Lemieux entered the season at the absolute peak of his abilites. Through the first half of the year, "Super Mario" was not merely leading the league, he was threatening to redefine NHL records. In his first 40 games, Lemieux posted an astounding 39 goals and 65 assists for 104 points, operating at a dizzying 2.67 points-per-game pace. Had he maintained that trajectory across an 84-game schedule, he was on track for a staggering 224 points and 97 goals. These are figures that would have shattered Wayne Gretzky’s legendary single-season record. He sat atop virtually every major offensive category: goals, assists, points, game-winning goals, and plus/minus. Mario was commanding the game with an effortless grace that left opponents helpless.

Then came the devastating news that brought the sports world to a sudden, terrifying halt. On January 12, 1993, Lemieux announced that he had been diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, a form of cancer. At just 27 years old, the world's greatest hockey player was forced to immediately step away from the game to undergo two months of aggressive radiation therapy. The physical toll of radiation treatment is notoriously brutal: severe fatigue, skin burns, nausea, and deep muscular exhaustion that can leave ordinary people bedridden. For an elite professional athlete, the treatment systematically strips away the stamina, strength, and explosive power built through a lifetime of training. As the weeks dragged on and Lemieux missed 24 consecutive games, Buffalo Sabres superstar Pat LaFontaine built a commanding 12-point lead in the Art Ross Trophy race, making any thought of a scoring title seem entirely out of reach.

What followed on March 2, 1993, reads like a Hollywood script. Early that morning in Pittsburgh, Lemieux endured his final, exhausting session of radiation therapy. Rather than heading home to rest, he immediately boarded a private flight to Philadelphia to rejoin his teammates for a evening game against the rival Flyers. When Lemieux stepped onto the ice in Philadelphia, a building historically hostile to visiting stars, the Flyers crowd rose to its feet and bestowed upon him a long, thunderous standing ovation in an unforgettable show of sportsmanship and respect. Despite being visibly drained from weeks of debilitating treatment, Lemieux went out and scored a goal and an assist that night, signaling to the hockey world that he was back.

His return sparked the most electrifying stretch of hockey ever witnessed. Trailing LaFontaine by 12 points with only 20 games remaining, Lemieux went on an unprecedented tear. Lemieux scored 30 goals and 26 assists for 56 points over the final month and a half. A mind-boggling 2.8 points per game pace, He put on back-to-back masterclasses in late March, scoring four goals against Washington on March 18 and another four against Philadelphia on March 20. Fueled by Lemieux’s astonishing 51 points in 17 games, the Penguins went on an NHL-record 17-game winning streak. By the time the regular season concluded, Lemieux had not only erased LaFontaine’s 12-point lead, but had won the Art Ross Trophy by a 12-point margin of his own.

In total, Lemieux finished the 1992–93 season with 69 goals, 91 assists, and 160 points in just 60 games played, alongside a staggering +55 rating. He was swept onto the podium at season's end, taking home the Hart Memorial Trophy as league MVP, the Pearson Award as MVP voted by his peers, and the Bill Masterton Trophy for perseverance and dedication. Beyond the silverware and the mind-numbing statistics, Mario Lemieux’s 1992–93 season stands as an enduring testament to the human spirit. It was a legendary campaign where sheer willpower proved stronger than the cancer itself.

What if Gretzky and Lemieux had remained healthy for their entire careers?

Wayne Gretzky’s status as the NHL’s all-time leading scorer is cemented by a record that feels increasingly untouchable: 2,857 points. To put his dominance in perspective, Gretzky has more career assists (1,963) than the "Ageless Wonder," Jaromir Jagr, has total points (1,921).

While Jagr, Mark Messier, Gordie Howe, and Joe Thornton all rank in the top 13 for career points, their longevity was a key factor; each played over 1,700 NHL games. Gordie Howe’s total is even more staggering when accounting for his years in the WHA, the NHL's primary rival in the 1970s.

Gretzky, by comparison, enjoyed remarkable durability early on. Despite the significant knee and back injuries previously mentioned, he missed only eight games total through his first eight seasons. Over his 20-year career, he appeared in 1,487 out of a possible 1,618 games (a figure that includes games lost to the 1994–95 lockout). By applying his seasonal goals-per-game and points-per-game averages to the games he missed, we can project what his career totals would look like with perfect health. In the analysis below, I have also accounted for his mid-season trade from Los Angeles to St. Louis by adjusting for a full 82-game schedule across both clubs (one additional game for each team).

While Wayne Gretzky’s projected total of 3,055 points (based on a hypothetical injury-free career) is staggering. Gretzky’s career was defined by durability; Lemieux’s was defined by defiance in the face of physical challenges. The vast gap between Lemieux and Gretzky in the record books is primarily due to the seasons Mario lost during his prime, rather than a difference in elite skill. When we apply the same hypothetical health standard to Lemieux, we see a career trajectory free from the interference of multiple back surgeries, broken bones, and the physical exhaustion of cancer therapy.

In this projection, we account for the 1994–95 lockout season, which Mario missed entirely to recover from radiation treatments, by blending his goal and point rates from the seasons immediately preceding and following his NHL leave. We apply a similar weighted formula to the three seasons of his first retirement (1997–2000), gradually shifting the weighting from his 1996–97 pace toward his 2000–01 comeback form. Interestingly, the math revealed a striking consistency: Lemieux’s assist pace remained identical (78 assists per 82 games) both before and after his three-year hiatus. By filling in these gaps, including the lost 2004–05 lockout season, we start to see a numerical total that challenges the very foundations of the NHL record books.

Adjusted for games lost to cancer, injury, and lockouts, Mario Lemieux was on a staggering pace to finish his career with 3,093 points. While playing every game is an unrealistic expectation for any athlete, anyone who witnessed Lemieux’s unique blend of size, skill, and elegance wouldn't be surprised with the potential total. He was a hockey artist, slicing through defenses and making fools of goaltenders with a jaw-dropping ease.

Had Mario played injury free until age 38, matching Gretzky’s retirement age and free from the burden of twice rescuing the Penguins from bankruptcy, the record books would be unrecognizable. While Gretzky might still hold the edge in points, Lemieux was the superior pure goal scorer. His projected pace of 1,223 career goals is beyond ridiculous. We saw the peak of this scoring prowess in 1988–89, where he finished with 199 points; I still maintain that he broke the 200-point barrier that year, only to be denied by a questionable goal judge at Madison Square Garden.

Yet, 1988–89 wasn't even his most efficient pace. In 1992–93, despite undergoing radiation and missing 24 games to fight cancer, Mario paced for 97 goals and 224 points. These numbers would have shattered Gretzky’s "unbreakable" single-season records. In 92-93 for the first time, Lemieux was surrounded by a roster comparable to the 1980s Oilers, flanked by Rick Tocchet and Kevin Stevens, with a supporting cast of Jagr, Francis, Murphy, Mullen, Samuelsson, and Barrasso. It was arguably the greatest team Mario ever led. Though they didn't secure a third straight Stanley Cup that year, it serves as a reminder that the best team on paper doesn't always win. That’s why we watch the game. The outcome, much like the "Greatest of All Time" debate, can never be fully determined on paper.

The Winning Percentage: Comparative Team Records for Gretzky and Lemieux

The disparity in team success between #99 and #66 is often a reflection of organizational stability. Lemieux’s peak in the early '90s proved what he could accomplish with an elite supporting cast, but the financial collapse of the Penguins changed his career trajectory. Both the beginning of Lemieux’s career and the latter half of his career told a much different story than Wayne Gretzky. Gretzky generally benefited from competitive supporting casts throughout his career. After being forced into the role of player-owner to prevent relocation, Lemieux returned to a team that lacked the depth and talent required to compete at the highest level. By the final years of his career, the franchise was cash-strapped and the roster was abysmal, leaving Lemieux to carry a team that was struggling both financially and on the ice.

In contrast, Wayne Gretzky’s career path was characterized by much higher baseline talent. Gretzky’s surroundings remained significantly more stable. Although the Los Angeles Kings entered a playoff drought following their 1993 Stanley Cup Final run, "The Great One" eventually moved on to St. Louis and then to a star-studded New York Rangers lineup in 1996. While Gretzky’s final teams were no longer the juggernauts of his Edmonton prime, they were far superior to the depleted rosters Lemieux was saddled to carrying the load. Mario wasn't just playing for points; he was playing to keep hockey alive in Pittsburgh, a burden of franchise survival that Gretzky never had to shoulder. This final chapter underscores the unique pressure Mario faced: he wasn't just the team’s best player; he was its entire franchise support system.

*1995-96 Wayne Gretzky was traded during the season.

Comparing the raw data for Gretzky's teams and Lemieux's Penguins reveals a stark contrast. While both are the most dominant individual forces in hockey history, their teams' trajectories followed very different scripts.

Lemieux inherited a basement dwelling team. In 1983-84, the year before Mario arrived, Pittsburgh was dead last with only 16 wins (38 points). It took Mario 7 seasons to drag that roster into a top-10 league ranking (1990-91). The Penguins fluctuate between 1st and 30th in rank. This correlates with Lemieux’s health; when he played 60+ games, the team was elite. When he was out, the data shows the team often plummeted back into the bottom third of the league.

Gretzky joined a team that was already competitively better. In his rookie NHL year (1979-80), the Oilers were in the playoffs. By his third season, they were already the #2 ranked team in the entire league. Between 1981 and 1991, Gretzky’s teams (EDM and LAK) only finished outside the top 5 in league standings once. 1992 they were 8th in the league standings.

Lemieux’s later career (post-2000) occurred during the 30-team era. The "Team Rank" data (ranks like 29th and 30th) reflects a period where the Penguins struggled immensely, making his individual output in those final years even more statistically anomalous.

Final Grade: Career Summary Benchmarks

Determining the greatest NHL player of all time is often a matter of perspective, but for those who witnessed Mario Lemieux in his prime, the argument for #66 is undeniable. A glance at the all-time scoring list reveals a fascinating trend: many of the game’s top producers were teammates of either Lemieux or Gretzky, sometimes for only a brief single season. Yet, Lemieux stands alone as the only player in the top 43 all-time scorers to achieve his status in fewer than 1,000 games. NHL Records: Career Points

While Wayne Gretzky’s staggering records are bolstered by a career defined by longevity and elite supporting casts, Lemieux’s path was paved with unparalleled adversity. Gretzky’s assist totals are legendary, but one can only wonder how Lemieux’s numbers would have evolved had he been flanked by Messier and Kurri rather than the likes of Warren Young or Rob Brown. While Gretzky may be the game's greatest passer, Lemieux was an unrivaled scoring force. He dominated the "clutch and grab" era, playing through relentless physical punishment, all while overcoming a battle with cancer that could have ended more than his career. In the end, the raw numbers tell one story, but the circumstances tell another: Lemieux was the ultimate 1-on-1 player in hockey history.

"(Mario) was the greatest player... I ever played against; he was the best player I played with... Mario was so good... (Mario) just was special, and unfortunately... [the] injuries and his disease that he had to battle through. He would have broken all my records; there's no question. He was that good." — Wayne Gretzky